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Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands of Mauritius and Rodrigues underwent catastrophic ecological and landscape transformations, which virtually eliminated their entire endemic vertebrate megafauna during the past millennium. These ecosystem changes have been alternately attributed to either human activities, climate change, or both, but parsing their relative importance, particularly in the case of Madagascar, has proven difficult. Here, we present a multimillennial (approximately the past 8000 years) reconstruction of the southwest Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability using speleothems from the island of Rodrigues, located ∼1600 km east of Madagascar. The record shows a recurring pattern of hydroclimate variability characterized by submillennial-scale drying trends, which were punctuated by decadal-to-multidecadal megadroughts, including during the late Holocene. Our data imply that the megafauna of the Mascarenes and Madagascar were resilient, enduring repeated past episodes of severe climate stress, but collapsed when a major increase in human activity occurred in the context of a prominent drying trend. 

Abstract. A large array of proxy recordssuggests that the “4.2ka event” marks an approximately300-year long period (∼3.9 to 4.2ka) ofmajor climate change across the globe. However, the climatic manifestation ofthis event, including its onset, duration, and termination, remains lessclear in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) domain. Here, we present new oxygenisotope (δ¹⁸O) data from a pair of speleothems (ML.1 and ML.2)from Mawmluh Cave, Meghalaya, India, that provide a high-resolution record ofISM variability during a period (∼3.78 and 4.44ka) that fullyencompasses the 4.2ka event. The sub-annually to annually resolved ML.1δ¹⁸O record is constrained by 18 ²³⁰Th dates with anaverage dating error of ±13 years (2σ) and a resolution of ∼40 years, which allows us to characterize the ISM variability withunprecedented detail. The inferred pattern of ISM variability during theperiod contemporaneous with the 4.2ka event shares broad similarities andkey differences with the previous reconstructions of ISM from the MawmluhCave and other proxy records from the region. Our data suggest that the ISMintensity, in the context of the length of our record, abruptly decreased at∼4.0ka ( $\sim \pm 13$ years), marking the onset of a multi-centennialperiod of relatively reduced ISM, which was punctuated by at least twomulti-decadal droughts between ∼3.9 and 4.0ka. The latter stands outin contrast with some previous proxy reconstructions of the ISM, in which the4.2ka event has been depicted as a singular multi-centennial drought.